The Australian immigration market is constantly changing and highly unpredictable. With each new financial year, the Vietnamese community aspiring to settle in Australia grows increasingly anxious over changes to occupation lists, migration points thresholds, and state allocation quotas. These fluctuations leave many applicants feeling uncertain: Does my occupation still have a chance? Should I abandon my current profession to pursue “hot” trades like commercial cookery or carpentry?
However, with long-term observation and careful analysis of historical data, one interesting truth becomes clear: Australian immigration policy operates in cycles. An occupation that is temporarily paused this year may surge in demand the following year when labor shortages emerge.
In this article, Skill Direct will walk you through an in-depth analysis of Australia’s immigration cycles, explain why staying committed to your chosen pathway matters, and most importantly why completing your Skills Assessment early is a critical strategic move.
Decoding Australia’s immigration cycle
1. The Big Picture: How Is Australia’s Immigration Market Changing?
To avoid being swayed by misinformation or invisible fears, the first step is to examine real data and long-term trends in Australia’s immigration market over the years.
1.1 The nature of Australia’s migration policy
Department of Home Affairs adjusts migration policies based on actual economic demand and pressure on social infrastructure. As a result, policy settings tend to fluctuate across different phases:
Tightening phase: When immigration numbers grow too rapidly, placing pressure on housing and public infrastructure, the government tightens visa conditions, raises points thresholds, and reduces allocation quotas (e.g. the period prior to the COVID-19 pandemic).
Opening phase: When the economy faces severe labor shortages and declining productivity, the government is compelled to relax visa settings and prioritize occupations in high demand to fill workforce gaps (e.g. the post-COVID period of 2022–2023).
With this understanding, it becomes clear that your occupation being temporarily deprioritized in invitation rounds does not mean the door has closed permanently. Rather, it is simply at a low point in the cycle and will return when labor demand rises again.
Australia’s immigration policy cycle
1.2 Phases of occupational shifts in Australian migration
In recent years, Australia’s migration policy has strongly focused on skilled workers. However, each phase has seen noticeable shifts in the occupations being prioritized. Below are the key occupational transition phases you should be aware of
Australian migration phase 2023–2024: This period marked Australia’s gradual reopening after the COVID-19 pandemic, with a strong focus on economic recovery and labor market restructuring. The government significantly increased allocations for the Skilled Migration program, particularly prioritizing technology, engineering, and construction sectors considered fundamental to national rebuilding and infrastructure development.
Australian Migration Phase 2024–2025 and beyond: Australia has begun tightening migration assessment processes, shifting towards selecting candidates with practical skills, strong employability, and a willingness to work in regional areas experiencing labor shortages (Regional Australia).
During this phase, the trend has increasingly favored trade occupations such as carpenters, painters, chefs, and technicians, alongside high-demand professions in nursing and early childhood education.
For high-demand occupations, invitation scores typically range between 65 and 85 points.
Meanwhile, ICT and accounting occupations remain among the most competitive due to declining demand. ICT, in particular, is now approaching the risk of being removed from priority occupation lists, resulting in invitation scores often ranging from 90 to 100+ points.
Overall, Australia’s immigration market is entering a more selective phase, where practical capability and readiness to contribute to the economy outweigh formal qualifications alone.
2. When Policy Changes: Should You Adjust Your Australian Migration Pathway?
Changes in Australia’s immigration policy
You cannot predict how occupation lists, invitation points, or allocation quotas will change in future phases of Australia’s immigration cycle. This uncertainty often leads to self-doubt and difficult questions: “Should I stay on my current career path or pivot to an occupation receiving more invitations? What is the best strategic move for me?”
Let’s take a deeper look to understand when a career shift makes sense and when staying the course is the smarter option.
2.1 Changing direction: A new opportunity or a hidden risk?
Suppose you initially planned to migrate to Australia under a skilled pathway in the ICT sector, but in recent years, trade occupations has received more invitations with lower levels of competition. The question then becomes: Is switching to a new occupation a better opportunity or a hidden risk?
In fact, changing career direction during the migration preparation process often carries more risks than benefits, for several reasons:
The first, you will need to invest additional time, money, and effort to retrain or obtain new qualifications related to the new occupation.
The second, while you are completing your studies or lodging a new skills assessment, immigration policies and priority occupation lists may continue to shift meaning the occupation you just moved into may no longer be in high demand.
Therefore, chasing “trending” occupations is not necessarily a wise strategy.
2.2 Staying direction: A stable and strategic approach
Instead of feeling anxious and jumping from one occupational trend to another during Australia’s migration cycle, the smartest strategy in times of uncertainty is consistency and self-upgrading.
If your occupation (for example, IT or Accounting) is currently at the bottom of the cycle and receiving few or no invitations, remember that it is likely to rise again when Australia’s economy requires talent in these fields. Your task, then, is not to change professions but to prepare the strongest possible version of your profile so you are ready when the cycle turns.
Here are several actions you can take to remain invitation-ready:
Complete your Skills Assessment as early as possible: This is a mandatory first step in your skilled migration journey. Do not wait until the Department of Home Affairs announces lower points thresholds or expanded invitations. By then, you may lose 3-4 months waiting for a positive skills assessment result while opportunities slip into the hands of applicants who are already prepared.
Optimize your points test: While waiting for your occupation to regain priority, focus on improving your English test results (PTE/IELTS) and accumulating relevant work experience. The goal is to strengthen your profile to reach 90-100 points, giving you a strong competitive edge.
In short, instead of worrying and chasing short-term trends, use this time wisely to upgrade your profile and position yourself ahead of the curve.
Getting ready for your move to Australia
3. What Should You Do To Achieve Your Australian Immigration Goal In The Next Cycle?
Australia’s skilled migration program is essentially a competition of points and alignment with labor market demand. To succeed in invitation rounds with increasingly high cut-off scores, you need a comprehensive and forward-looking strategy.
3.1 Early planning
Early planning is the most effective strategy for achieving your migration goals amid the growing volatility of Australia’s immigration policies. This means clearly defining your pathway and maximizing your points, as Australia’s SkillSelect system prioritizes candidates with the highest scores.
Clearly identify your nominated occupation: You should select an occupation listed on the MLTSSL (Medium and Long-term Strategic Skills List). This list includes occupations that the Australian Government considers essential for the country’s long-term economic development, offering greater stability for your long-term migration plan.
Maximize your migration points: Since SkillSelect invites the highest-scoring candidates first, focus on strengthening key point-scoring factors:
English proficiency: Achieve a higher level of English (e.g. IELTS 8.5+ or equivalent) to maximize language points.
Work experience: Accumulate relevant work experience aligned with your nominated occupation—particularly Australian work experience, which carries higher points.
Qualifications: Consider pursuing additional qualifications (e.g. Master’s or PhD degrees) or completing recognized professional courses that may contribute extra points.
3.2 Skill Direct – Your strategic partner in Australian migration
Instead of feeling overwhelmed by constant policy changes, let Skill Direct help you build a strong and resilient pathway through each migration cycle. At Skill Direct, we don’t just prepare applications we help you define a clear strategy and long-term direction.
Optimizing your Skills Assessment: We advise on how to present and substantiate your work experience in line with the requirements of the relevant assessing authority, maximizing your chances of a positive outcome on the first attempt. This ensures you secure the most critical prerequisite for skilled migration to Australia.
Points test strategy: We analyze what steps you should take during waiting periods whether gaining additional work experience or completing further certifications to push your Points Test score as high as possible when invitation rounds resume.
Don’t let market volatility hold you back. Remember every downturn in Australia’s immigration market is followed by an upswing. Your role is not to worry but to be fully prepared so you can be invited the moment the next cycle begins.
Your journey is never a solitary one when you are guided by experienced professionals. With the right support, you can avoid costly mistakes, follow a clear strategy, save valuable time, and significantly increase your chances of success in achieving your Australian dream.
